The Standard Deviation

By Thief
for fantasysportsthief.com

Sponsored by

Published: August 31, 2010

I’ve got to admit, I’m still new to this whole ‘giving fantasy advice’ thing (can you believe it’s been less than a year!) and I made a mistake. I didn’t make this mistake in other sports, but I did here. I forgot to emphasize the fact that I am ranking players based on a scoring format suitable for most leagues, but not all. I forgot to emphasize that you need to go out there and determine the appropriate game plan for your league so we can strategize. You see, in most leagues, RB’s and WR’s have the highest value and QB’s come third. But, in some leagues, this is not the case. More importantly, I’m now going to tell you how to tell which is.

The actual way to determine which position is most valuable is by using a statistical concept called the standard deviation. In finance, we use the standard deviation to determine things like how risky a stock is, how risky a portfolio is, and more generally, how much movement you can expect the stock to have. The higher the standard deviation, the more risky the asset or portfolio is (bet you’re glad I’m droppin this finance knowledge on ya!). But really what we’re talking about is how much movement there is in the numbers.

Now we relate it to sports before I get you all messed up. A standard deviation as it relates to sports essentially tells you how much the set of numbers vary. More specifically, when applied to the total points scored per player (i.e. AP and CJ around 300, but Maroney at 100) it tells you the average difference between each players score. So a lower standard deviation relative to a higher one means that the lower one has a group of players whose scores do not deviate as much from the average player as the higher one.

So what I do is drop into excel the draftable players at each position for a league. Realistically that’s like 20 qb’s, 35 rb’s and 50 wr’s, 18 TE’s. From there I calculate out either their points from last season or the points I project for them this season (it doesn’t matter which). I then use the STDEV formula to get a standard deviation for each position. Of course, I could tell you mathematically the formula too, but excel makes life so much easier.

I remember back in basketball I had done this for you all, but as opposed to position I did it based on stats (which is kind of the same thing in basketball). I apologize for not doing it til so late for football. So again, the standard deviation is going to tell us which position in football has players that vary the most from the average drafted guy. By doing so, it’s telling us where to focus our draft attention, since the lowest standard deviation position is the one where we can afford to have just an average player, since we won’t lose as many relative points.

Fortunately for you all, since I do realize that I’m a bit more of a numbers geek than the rest of us, there’s a quick and dirty way to do this too. It involves just looking at the differences in points scored between a top player and a middle player (I like to use 2-9 because they’re readily available). This method is probably more intuitive to you. It’s like saying which combination of WR/RB/QB/TE will give me the most points if I have to choose two players of the four from the top tier and two from the middle of the pack.

So, here’s what we get for the football position standard deviations:

QB: 36

RB: 75

WR: 41

TE: 23

I refuse to list kicker and defense. I hope the result would be obvious. Hopefully RB leaps off the page for you, because it should. There is so much value to having top backs that it’s unspeakable. However don’t overstate the numbers too. Going out and drafting two top backs at the expense of all three other positions is not the way to win (though it would be better than drafting the other three at the expense of RB). This is why I keep hammering home that you need to structure your spending/draft picks by focusing on RB’s and WR’s first, then QB, then the rest. As I write this Lady Thief is in another mock auction draft lamenting an idiot for paying $50 for Drew Brees.

Now, like I said, I owe you an apology. These standard deviations are based off of standard scoring systems. That is, for RB 10 yds per point, 6 points for a td. For WR it’s 7 yards per point (which helps account for PPR leagues somewhat) and 6 points per TD. For QB’s it’s 25 yards per point, 4 points for a TD and -2 for picks.

Some of you play in leagues that differ greatly from this standard setup. That’s ok, but it’s something you need to know well ahead of draft time. I say this because it changes every single ranking system you read from mine to Yahoo’s to Joe Schmoe’s. The mistake that so many people make is to go to their waiver pool, sort by fan pts of last year, and just look at the points scored by the top guy. This tells you nothing about the value of a position vs. another. It’s the differential between guys at that position that we need to focus on. If Brees scores 1000 points, and Favre scores 950 whilst AP scores 300 and Ryan Grant scores 100, it’s the RB’s that are giving you the edge in points.

So everyone, please, if you use a scoring format that varies wildly from mine, go to your waiver pool and do the 2-9 test. This is the quickest and easiest way to see which positions will offer the most value (and by the way, if anything, it understates the value of WR and RB due to the increased amount of those guys you have to draft). However, if you use a standard system or one that’s pretty darn close to the one I listed, rest at ease. We’re set to take the gold.

I hope you all found this helpful. I’ve got draft #2 tonight and I’ll be updating on Twitter if you’re interested (and may even be looking for tips from you!). It’s an auction draft, as run by Lady Thief herself which has me somewhat nervous going into it. If you think my competitors who read this site know something about my gameplan, trust me, they know little compared to her. Oh, and for all those who don’t know, I promise you that my wife knows more about football than most people could ever hope for. Heck, that’s one reason I married her!

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http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/V5JT2FFLWEQK73GZX4JQAVEEBE qwan

Thief what are thoughts on the following draft prospects? Dwayne Bowe, Arian Foster, and Malcolm Flyod.Also, what is your gamertag for xbox? I would like to challenge you in some Madden 11. I'm big on the Bengels this year as well. They have a pretty good squad on Madden. BTW, great lesson on good ole' Standard of Deviation. Takes me back to my Economic Stats class. That is a great tool to provide everyone with. It's very reminiscent of your article "How good is Chris Paul?" Hands down I believe that key RB's & WR's are goal to at least making the playoffs. This is barring injury. However to diversify your risk of injury, we draft guys like Thomas Jones, Portis, T.O., Palmer. Not only for future trades to sell high, but to protect our investment in case our starters get banged up. There is big difference in real life between A.P & Ryan Grant. or Moss & say a Moss and Steve Smith (Car). Great Article!!
The_Thief

thanks buddy. My gamertag is Gabadoo2ooo and I'll face ANYONE!Bengals are very good. Cowboys are too.I like Bowe and Floyd, I'm not as high on Foster as his current cost.
http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/V5JT2FFLWEQK73GZX4JQAVEEBE qwan

Great I'll add you. qwan da don is mine. Look foward to the challenge.
The_Thief

BRING IT Q! BRING DEM BENGALS!!!
morskie

Less than a year?! geez i must have started posting here soon after you started… i thought you were doing this for a while! lolAn old friend of mine im'd me today bragging about his auction draft where "fools" paid crazy money for all the top backs while he got Brady, Moss, Fitzy, (some other nothing special WRs) and … here's the funny part … Minny and Pitt DEF! i nearly fell out… his RBs ended up being Barber, Felix Jones, McCoy, Spiller and some other guy… i really hope i have one of him in my league…
Bandoogiemanz

Hey Thief. It seems my league is gonna have 15 players per team. 1 QB, 3 WR, 2RB, TE, K, DEF, and 6 Bench spots. Am I right in thinking that's too much? Should I make any changes to my draft strategy? As of now, I'm looking to draft in this order:RBRBWRWR/RBWRQBTEDEF/WR/RBK/WR/RBBench spotsThanks.
Dabears

wats up with Mojo? i just picked him #4 in my draft, should i be worried and get rashad jennings?
golfin14

Hey thief, just wanted to double check I'm good with using your rankings and strategy…my league is 10 yds per point for both Rushing yards and Reception yards. For Passing yards it's 20 yards per point and for all 3 it's 6 points for a TD……I already did my draft and I think you said before the only difference is to add 2 points to the top 3 QB's and then after that it gets diffused out. Just wanted to be sure I'm good, thanks
jawn

ay sup thief… u n lady.thief got a league for NBA? whas good…?
The_Thief

Yeah no that's pretty standard. It's cool. Good gameplan.
The_Thief

Yes. No one is confident about that situation. No one.
The_Thief

Ur good. It's the guys with completion boosts etc to really worry. Also some do 25 rush/rec yds per pt
The_Thief

In due time. In due time.
golfin14

who is mojo?…haha these nicknames kill me sometimes I had to google the megatron you said that one time Thief..(that is Calvin Johnson right)
golfin14

sweet, thanks!
Biglil

So the WR situtaion in Green Bay is not set? Is Mjoo, Jennings from GB?
http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/V5JT2FFLWEQK73GZX4JQAVEEBE qwan

I want to join that one too if its available. Competition at its best.
http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/V5JT2FFLWEQK73GZX4JQAVEEBE qwan

For all you fantasy nuts and theives out there. Yahoo Fantasy Football app is now available for Iphone and Google Android markets. And it looks very promising. Now i can really monitor my situation from anywhere.
Konglong_Stomp

Yo Thief Nation! Against the Thief's and pretty much everyone's advice, I drafted Larry Fitz. I instantly had the buyer's remorse as it was a panic pick, he was the last "top" WR left in the auction. I'm pretty good at WR already with Moss and Ochocinco and need a solid RB2 for an 8 (!!) team league, should I wait until the season starts to flip Fitz for a RB or do it now? And who do you think I can target for Fitz?Thanks,Anthony
Konglong_Stomp

Yup, Megatron = Calvin, and Mojo = Maurice Jones-Drew.
acsparks714

Just drafted unfortunately 8 team, critique accordingly.QB: Philip Rivers (SD – QB)WR: Calvin Johnson (Det – WR)WR: Brandon Marshall (Mia – WR)WR: T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Sea – WR)RB: Michael Turner (Atl – RB)RB: Cedric Benson (Cin – RB)TE: Kellen Winslow (TB – TE)BN: Steve Smith (Car – WR)BN: Michael Bush (Oak – RB)BN: Hines Ward (Pit – WR)BN: Malcom Floyd (SD – WR)BN: Jerome Harrison (Cle – RB)BN: Matt Ryan (Atl – QB)KickersK: Lawrence Tynes (NYG – K)Defense/Special TeamsDEF: Green Bay (GB – DEF)
Konglong_Stomp

Haha and in case anyone wanted to see, here's the team in ac's 8 team-league:QB – Joe FlaccoWR – Randy Moss / Larry Fitz / Chad OchocincoRB – AP / Matt Forte (!!!)K – Matt PraterTE – Visanthe ShiancoeDEF – EaglesBN – Carson Palmer, Clinton Portis, Santana Moss, Darren McFadden, Montario Hardesty
acsparks714

Do I doSteve Smith (Car)=Ronnie Brown
http://twitter.com/OnodaDaisuke Daisuke

I think it is a little weak considering it's a 8 team. You might have wanted a better RB2, and one of Moss/Andre Johnson but Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall is a good WR pair. I think this would be a great in a 10 team league but might be a little lacking in a 8 team.
http://twitter.com/OnodaDaisuke Daisuke

It might be cool to have a really deep league commissioned by the thief with all of the board members To play with all the very best.That would be great fun. I do have a basketball league starting with DStheBest, and Bulgaria Power in it as well as some people I know from other boards if anyone is interested, give me an e-mail @ omg_its_him@hotmail.co.jpWaiting for members!Our baseball league has gone really well
acsparks714

Don't even get me started on only having 8 teams lol
acsparks714

Calvin Johnson+Steve Smith (Car)=Miles Austin+Anquan Boldin
http://twitter.com/OnodaDaisuke Daisuke

well on second thought, Benson is a good RB2.I myself like Miles Austin moreso than Calvin Johnson this year but I think it is really up to you. I would not do it as of now. It's not really needed and you will be kicking yourself if the player you drafted starts off hot. Wait would you not be starting Steve Smith rather than Housh?i missed that you have Steve Smith… on second look I think this is a great team!
acsparks714

Oh yeah i just mixed those two up.
The_Thief

Maurice jones drew. An yes, megaton is cal Johnson lol.
The_Thief

I prefer 'my fantasy team' app.
The_Thief

Lol 8 teams! Who knows!!
The_Thief

Sorry AC. This is a better squad IMO.
The_Thief

Sure
Matt

Sorry thief but this is my first year playing football… Is this the standard type of league that you have been talking about in all other posts? 25 yards per point Passing Touchdowns 4 Interceptions -1 Rushing Yards 10 yards per point Rushing Touchdowns 6 Reception Yards 10 yards per point Reception Touchdowns 6 Return Yards 50 yards per point 0Return Touchdowns 6 2-Point Conversions 2 Fumbles Lost -2 Offensive Fumble Return TD 6 Kickers League Value Yahoo! Default ValueField Goals 0-19 Yards 3 Field Goals 20-29 Yards 3 Field Goals 30-39 Yards 3 Field Goals 40-49 Yards 4 Field Goals 50+ Yards 5 Point After Attempt Made 1 Defense/Special Teams Sack 1 Interception 2 Fumble Recovery 2 Touchdown 6 Safety 2 Block Kick 2 Return Yards 50 yards per point 0Kickoff and Punt Return Touchdowns 6 Points Allowed 0 points 10 Points Allowed 1-6 points 7 Points Allowed 7-13 points 4 Points Allowed 14-20 points 1 Points Allowed 21-27 points 0 Points Allowed 28-34 points -1 Points Allowed 35+ points -4
morskie

The cards are actively trying to trade Leinart… Fitz is a safe buy lol
morskie

Thief, you say you live and die by Lincecum… if you were in the playoffs this week (i am), would you start him at home vs Colorado tonight? How is your playoff picture looking now? are you in or are you still battling to get in?
morskie

I'm running lincecum out there… i just checked home/road splits for the rockies… they are 3rd to last in runs, last in average, 2nd to last in slugging, 4th to last in OBP. Absolutely putrid on the road. He's facing Ubaldo, so maybe a little extra pride will kick in against the new kid on the block.
TheArchDevil

Hey Thief,Just held my 14 team auction and I have to say that I am not overjoyed about my squad. These guys are hardcore and went NUTS on bidding for the top guys AP, CJ and even Gore went for over 80 bucks each. So I sat back and stuck to your strategy and got this squadFlacco, Mendenhall, Portis, B.Marshall, M.Austin and J.Stewart (my internet connection crapped out and the PC bought him for me..aaarrrgh!) I have just sent out this trade to try and firm up the squad. My Stewart/Austin for his Addai/Megatron, I figure this redresses the balance in my backup RB and nets me a much better WR into the bargain.What are your thoughts? is this a good trade and what should I be looking to do to improve this squad?
The_Thief

Yes
The_Thief

They should go after vick
The_Thief

Ridiculously close. I need to win n I'm up 9-0. I need another guy to lose n he's up 6-3. So tight. Basically it's win or go home for me. I'm starting Timmy. It's my thing, if I lose I can comfortably say Lincey blew up on me. If I don't start him n he does well n I lose, I lost cause I tried to get cute. That said, it's all ur call.
The_Thief

Cancel that offer. You need to move Stewart +1 for a better RB2, not a better WR. As for the bidding, I just paid 77 for AP in a 12 team league n I'd have gone higher.
acsparks714

Haha no problem. My CPU went haywire and spent $23 of my money on Steve smith and Hines ward. Who knows what woulda happened but in gonna make sure to finish on top
morskie

yeah… its tough. I need to take a couple pitching cats to get a W and advance. my ratios are 1.69/1.19 and his are 1.48/0.95. So i really need to stay low and hope one of his guys gets blown up. That said, do i roll with Cueto & Lincy, Shields @ Bal? or do i bench my starters and count on Soriano, Axford, Lidge and Madson to continue to post good ratios and bring me home?The flip side is that my opponent only has 1 win to my 0, so i could get that category too, with some starters… tied at 0 for saves… and i'm probably not going to win K's…
http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/V5JT2FFLWEQK73GZX4JQAVEEBE qwan

Whoa that might be a decent idea. What would you think of Fitz then Thief?
Blad3

someone just offered me Boldin and Forte for Matthews. I'm thinking of countering for Djax and Matthews for Andre Johnson and Forte… thoughts?
morskie

LOL… just because he's Ron Mexico doesn't mean he should actually be that close to mexico… bad idea lolI think Derek Anderson, if tasked with being a game manager, will be much better for them than Vick, who is practically a lateral move from Leinart as a passer…
The_Thief

Your strong suit is def season trades
http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/V5JT2FFLWEQK73GZX4JQAVEEBE qwan

I still say you have a pretty competitive squad. Just one glitch. No sweat. I like both teams. Cant wait to hear about the battles that you guys will have.
The_Thief

I'd ride relievers til you are forced to play starters. Then if need be, stream over the W/E
The_Thief

I like fitz where I have him right now. He's got an uphill battle ahead.
http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/V5JT2FFLWEQK73GZX4JQAVEEBE qwan

Is that an Iphone app? Darn your iphone. I'll stick to my HTC phone with google(Android) market apps thank you.
The_Thief

I like the counter. A lot.
morskie

word… sounds good… i guess i'll keep Lincy on the shelf then… I need shutout innings, and as bad as the rockies are on the road, I'm not confident lincy can do that right now.Luckily i have some safety nets late in the week… Daniel Hudson vs Hou, Shields @ Bal saturday and Haren @ Oak sunday.Good luck this week… hope it works out for you to make the dance!
morskie

Theif Nation! I have a 16 team football league drafting this saturday, 9PM EDT with one spot open.here's the setup:QB, RB, W/T, W/T, W/T, W/R, K, DEF, 8 Bench slots, IRPass: 4pt td, -2pt int, 25 yds per point.Run: 6pt td, -2pt fum, 10 yds per point.Rec: 6pt td, -2pt fum, 7yds per pointthere are tiered bonus points awarded for total yardage.Teams can keep One player that they drafted (no FA pickup or traded players can be kept). keepers expire after one season and return to the draft pool.I'll be doing custom schedules where each team plays division members twice.You will be joining myself, Konglong_Stomp, Qwan and Josh Cowan as fellow Theif Nation members. That's a lotta Thiefs, you say? Don't bother me none… sure we all have the same strategies… but its all about execution! Its gonna be a great challenge… post if you want in!
morskie

What does MoJo's injury situation do to the rankings? No way we draft him as a top 5 back, but at what point is he worth the risk? i have a *blech* snake draft tonight and i may miss the first couple rounds and i don't want to get stuck with him as an early/mid round pick lol
http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/4NGGHYYMQBHIINDPPLPS4OR4TA Carlos S.

Roll with Liriano VS Detroit tonight?
http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/V5JT2FFLWEQK73GZX4JQAVEEBE qwan

Dont forget that its also Auction draft as well. Meaning that I will be giving you hell each and every time out lol.
morskie

… there's another kind of draft? I'll make sure you're on my schedule… see if you can back that up haha
acsparks714

Is it auction?
morskie

yes, its auction
http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/V5JT2FFLWEQK73GZX4JQAVEEBE qwan

Hey no fair. Something screwy with the site. the postings are missing one moment and then appear the next. Please line me up in your schedule. I would love to get some practice against a fellow thief. AC you should join us as well. You should cruise in your 8 team league lol.
acsparks714

Packers coach Mike McCarthy has essentially guaranteed that Jermichael Finley will be a Pro Bowler this year as long as he avoids major injury."If he stays healthy … 16 games, I'm sure you'll be sending him to Hawaii," McCarthy stated. It's hard to quibble with McCarthy's assessment. Finley has not only emerged as the dominant talent at his position in the NFC, he's also become Aaron Rodgers' go-to receiver.
http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/V5JT2FFLWEQK73GZX4JQAVEEBE qwan

AC? ssshhh. Let's keep this info our little secret. Finley is starting to not be so much of a sleeper lately various leagues. So its like his stock keeps rising so you cant get him for the low.
acsparks714

Got three offersI give=I getSteve Smith (Car)=Ronnie BrownCalvin Johnson+Steve Smith (Car)=Miles Austin+Anquan BoldinSteve Smith (Car)+Michael Bush=Jermichael Finley+Hakeem NicksWhich, if any, should I take?Here's my team btwOffenseQB: Philip Rivers (SD – QB)WR: Calvin Johnson (Det – WR)WR: Brandon Marshall (Mia – WR)WR: Steve Smith (Car – WR)RB: Michael Turner (Atl – RB)RB: Cedric Benson (Cin – RB)TE: Kellen Winslow (TB – TE)BN: T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Sea – WR)BN: Hines Ward (Pit – WR)BN: Michael Bush (Oak – RB)BN: Malcom Floyd (SD – WR)BN: Jerome Harrison (Cle – RB)BN: Matt Ryan (Atl – QB)KickersK: Lawrence Tynes (NYG – K)Defense/Special TeamsDEF: Green Bay (GB – DEF)
acsparks714

If I got the third one I'd pick up Thomas Jones for Hakeem Nicks.
Nhern

I only like the first one…2nd one i think you lose big and bush should come back from his injury and be the man in oakland.
http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/V5JT2FFLWEQK73GZX4JQAVEEBE qwan

Honestly AC, I make no moves right now. You have T.J who could turn into a Ronnie Brown. Malcolm Floyd is solid for a sell high. Harrison could be solid. And Ryan is always good for a sell high. I would not move any pieces because I believe your squad is built really well. Turner & Benson. How can you get much better.
The_Thief

Me too bro – me too
The_Thief

dood – thats a PERFECT setup!! =)
The_Thief

I dunno dood – I don't think anyone knows the answer to that question. I
just know I'm not gonna be the guy who goes for him.
The_Thief

yup
The_Thief

NUMBER TWO: INK IT!
The_Thief

in my opinion here: MEGATRON = Austin and Boldin > Matt Moore I mean Steve
Smith
TheArchDevil

So Stewart and one of my WR's for a better RB? This squad does not have much depth so 2 for 1s may be tricky. Or should I just shoot for AP with a strong 2-1 offer like Mendenhall and Austin?
morskie

lol… funny that!! haha
The_Thief

The WW will be ur depth. No need to target AP, I doubt he'll be moved. Try for guys like S Jax(on the high end) an Pierre Thomas (on the low end).
morskie

So, AC… you interested in joining the league? Would love to have ya!
acsparks714

I'm def interested. Hit me with the league ID and password. You can send it to acsparks714@yahoo.com

Aaron S

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