Published: August 24, 2010
Don’t ask me why I chose 170 players, you don’t want to know the answer. OK, I’ll tell you anyway, but in order to do so, I’ve got to give (once again) some insight into HOW I came to these rankings. First things first, I got myself some projected stats. Kudos goes out to Rotowire, as they were my initial source of projections, we’ll call it a template. This template allowed me to download, quite quickly, an entire universe of players. Next step is to segregate these players into positions.
Once players are separated into positions, I can apply a financial statistics concept called ‘Relative Value Analysis’. Essentially, I scan through each player and their projections on my template, and adjust those stats based on my own observations and more importantly, based on the projections of equal players or of a players own past (or alternatively, of past performances by equal players). So if the top RB last year scored 18 tds, and I predict one RB to be this years top scorer, I’m gonna base his predicted td total on that 18 (ok, this is a VERY simplified explanation).
Then we watch the preseason games, injuries, etc and make some more adjustments. This is a fluid process that takes constant rejiggering. For instance, just today I had to adjust my expectations of both Larry Fitzgerald and Sidney Rice. I adjusted Rice way down due to news he will now miss half the season (I placed his rank score at zero, draft at your own risk). I adjusted Fitz down because, well because Leinart apparently can’t hit the broad side of a barn with a pass.
Now it’s modeling time. My model consists of several different factors that culminate in a final ‘score’ for a player. Each players score represents how much better he is than the average guy at his position. This is where 170 comes in. I figure in the average 12 team league that drafts 14 players (not including kickers or defense) you’ll have roughly 170 draftable guys. Thus, when I compare RB’s, I compare them to other RB’s that should be drafted. Other inputs to this model include the players Madden Rank (which I left out for Tight Ends because the rank is skewed towards blocking ability), injury potential, years experience, and team.
In the end we come up with a rank score. How do you interpret this rank score? Simple, a players rank score is his relative ranking compared to the average guy at his position. A positive rank score means he is ‘better than average’. A negative means he is ‘worse than average’. And zero means he’s right about average. Now, if the average player at that position isn’t very far from the best guy at that position, the best guy will have a lower rank score. In other words, while Drew Brees is awesome, he’s just not that much better than the average QB as far as projected stats (and other factors) go. Alternatively, the top RB’s and the top WR’s are much better than the average guy at their position, and thus their rank score gets a bigger boost.
So when you look at two players rank scores, and are choosing between Adrian Peterson and Drew Brees, my model is telling you to take Peterson because it’s likely that he’s much better than an average RB, whilst if you miss Brees and take an average QB (like Carson Palmer), you won’t get hurt as much. Ya feel me?
Now MANY of you have asked me, ‘Thief, does it make sense to just blindly draft by your rank scores’. NO, ABSOLUTELY NOT. It’s not that you’d end up with a bad team so much as you’d cheat yourself out of a better team. Check it out, WE know Calvin Johnson is a top 10 guy. Does the rest of your league know that? Probably not, they probably follow some Yahoo board rankings which have Megatron ranked around 19. That’s value to you. That’s where you have to come in and – for snake drafts, be sure he’s your second round pick – in auction drafts, try to get him at a price equal to other top 20 players.
However, if you’re in a snake draft and are looking at picking 4th, things get a little tougher. You can’t afford to let a top guy slide because you likely won’t see him in round 2. So here’s my advice for you: if you’re looking at picking 4th, notice how close the rank scores are for Moss, Turner, and Andre Johnson. The difference between these guys is indistinguishable (though definitely different from say – Ray Rice). Here, it’s your call. You decide if you want a RB first round or a WR. You decide if your league will let a top WR or a top RB slide to you in round two. You decide if you feel better having Moss because you want Schaub as your QB, or maybe Johnson and Brady. Or maybe you’re a Texans fan? I don’t care, in the end you gotta put a little into this.
The most important thing I can tell you, hands down, is to MAKE A GAMEPLAN. This is the single most important part of playing fantasy sports. In a snake draft, you probably know at least an hour out where you’ll be picking. Make up your mind who you’re going to take and start mapping out future rounds. In an auction, lay out who you’re going to spend loot on and give yourself at least one backup at each position in case you get bid out.
Finally, neither I, nor anyone else can tell you how much to spend on a player. Every league is different when it comes to auctions, and every player will go for a different price in every league. Best I can offer is: if you want a guy, pay for him. Keep bidding until you no longer want him. Sure, I could say pay no more than $70 for Peterson. But maybe that’s because I expect Cedric Benson and players of his ilk to go for $40. What if they go for only $20 in your league? You’d be kicking yourself for not spending an extra dollar or four and watching the lower guys go cheaper. You just don’t know.
Listed below are the Fantasy Sports Thief’s Top 170 players, with Madden Ranks, Rank Scores and Overall Ranks. To make it easier on you, you can link to a cheatsheet via google docs here. Best of luck to you all. My first (blech snake blech) draft is tomorrow night. Once it’s over, I’ll be sure to post a recap. I hope you find this helpful.
And ALWAYS remember: Don’t worry playa, the Thief’s got you covered!
| First | Last | Team | Madden Rank | Rank Score | Rank |
| Adrian | Peterson | MIN | 98 | 19.9904 | 1 |
| Maurice | Jones-Drew | JAC | 96 | 17.9863 | 2 |
| Chris | Johnson | TEN | 99 | 16.1464 | 3 |
| Randy | Moss | NE | 95 | 15.6949 | 4 |
| Michael | Turner | ATL | 90 | 15.5355 | 5 |
| Andre | Johnson | HOU | 98 | 14.2111 | 6 |
| Calvin | Johnson | DET | 91 | 11.8989 | 7 |
| Ray | Rice | BAL | 90 | 11.1469 | 8 |
| Brandon | Marshall | MIA | 96 | 10.6113 | 9 |
| Drew | Brees | NO | 99 | 10.5415 | 10 |
| Rashard | Mendenhall | PIT | 87 | 10.2019 | 11 |
| Larry | Fitzgerald | ARZ | 97 | 10.1898 | 12 |
| Miles | Austin | DAL | 88 | 9.8342 | 13 |
| Steven | Jackson | STL | 95 | 9.0954 | 14 |
| Peyton | Manning | IND | 99 | 8.9325 | 15 |
| Frank | Gore | SF | 93 | 8.5426 | 16 |
| Chad | Ochocinco | CIN | 91 | 8.3794 | 17 |
| Aaron | Rodgers | GB | 94 | 8.1468 | 18 |
| Ryan | Mathews | SD | 77 | 7.5047 | 19 |
| Roddy | White | ATL | 93 | 7.4267 | 20 |
| Tom | Brady | NE | 95 | 7.2540 | 21 |
| Anquan | Boldin | BAL | 91 | 7.1573 | 22 |
| DeSean | Jackson | PHI | 91 | 7.1445 | 23 |
| Cedric | Benson | CIN | 89 | 7.1233 | 24 |
| Philip | Rivers | SD | 94 | 6.9753 | 25 |
| Joe | Flacco | BAL | 87 | 6.0719 | 26 |
| Shonn | Greene | NYJ | 81 | 5.9480 | 27 |
| Reggie | Wayne | IND | 96 | 5.8441 | 28 |
| Tony | Romo | DAL | 90 | 5.6667 | 29 |
| Greg | Jennings | GB | 90 | 5.6308 | 30 |
| Antonio | Gates | SD | N/A | 5.1465 | 31 |
| Matt | Schaub | HOU | 89 | 5.1400 | 32 |
| Carson | Palmer | CIN | 87 | 4.9017 | 33 |
| DeAngelo | Williams | CAR | 92 | 4.8911 | 34 |
| Jermichael | Finley | GB | N/A | 4.7902 | 35 |
| Marques | Colston | NO | 89 | 4.7761 | 36 |
| Dallas | Clark | IND | N/A | 4.7248 | 37 |
| Pierre | Thomas | NO | 84 | 4.6785 | 38 |
| Ronnie | Brown | MIA | 89 | 4.0109 | 39 |
| Steve | Smith | CAR | 92 | 3.9294 | 40 |
| Matt | Forte | CHI | 86 | 3.9096 | 41 |
| Clinton | Portis | WAS | 85 | 3.7853 | 42 |
| Brett | Favre | MIN | 92 | 3.6540 | 43 |
| Donovan | McNabb | WAS | 89 | 3.6416 | 44 |
| Jamaal | Charles | KC | 87 | 3.5912 | 45 |
| Vernon | Davis | SF | N/A | 3.3362 | 46 |
| Joseph | Addai | IND | 86 | 3.2169 | 47 |
| T.J. | Houshmandzadeh | SEA | 87 | 3.1052 | 48 |
| Santana | Moss | WAS | 83 | 3.0654 | 49 |
| Michael | Bush | OAK | 78 | 2.9867 | 50 |
| Matt | Ryan | ATL | 86 | 2.9739 | 51 |
| Ryan | Grant | GB | 88 | 2.7428 | 52 |
| Malcom | Floyd | SD | 76 | 2.5468 | 53 |
| Brent | Celek | PHI | N/A | 2.3923 | 54 |
| Chris | Wells | ARZ | 82 | 2.3773 | 55 |
| Percy | Harvin | MIN | 84 | 2.3454 | 56 |
| Hines | Ward | PIT | 89 | 2.1269 | 57 |
| Mike | Sims-Walker | JAC | 85 | 2.0423 | 58 |
| Jerome | Harrison | CLE | 83 | 1.9983 | 59 |
| Michael | Crabtree | SF | 83 | 1.9904 | 60 |
| Jahvid | Best | DET | 75 | 1.9852 | 61 |
| Brandon | Jacobs | NYG | 84 | 1.9043 | 62 |
| Knowshon | Moreno | DEN | 82 | 1.7914 | 63 |
| Vincent | Jackson | SD | 90 | 1.6186 | 64 |
| Eli | Manning | NYG | 89 | 1.5812 | 65 |
| Ben | Roethlisberger | PIT | 88 | 1.5218 | 66 |
| Kellen | Winslow | TB | N/A | 1.4702 | 67 |
| Dwayne | Bowe | KC | 84 | 1.4693 | 68 |
| Visanthe | Shiancoe | MIN | N/A | 1.4386 | 69 |
| LeSean | McCoy | PHI | 79 | 1.3984 | 70 |
| Terrell | Owens | FA | 83 | 1.3313 | 71 |
| Justin | Forsett | SEA | 76 | 1.2285 | 72 |
| Marion | Barber | DAL | 84 | 1.2219 | 73 |
| Braylon | Edwards | NYJ | 85 | 1.0249 | 74 |
| Felix | Jones | DAL | 83 | 0.1699 | 75 |
| Owen | Daniels | HOU | N/A | 0.0162 | 76 |
| Sidney | Rice | MIN | 90 | 0.0000 | 77 |
| Kevin | Kolb | PHI | 75 | -0.0683 | 78 |
| Greg | Olsen | CHI | N/A | -0.1147 | 79 |
| John | Carlson | SEA | N/A | -0.1147 | 79 |
| Matt | Hasselbeck | SEA | 79 | -0.1805 | 81 |
| Jonathan | Stewart | CAR | 88 | -0.3139 | 82 |
| Pierre | Garcon | IND | 80 | -0.3495 | 83 |
| Lee | Evans | BUF | 84 | -0.3864 | 84 |
| Tony | Gonzalez | ATL | N/A | -0.4042 | 85 |
| Zach | Miller | OAK | N/A | -0.4842 | 86 |
| Thomas | Jones | KC | 88 | -0.9143 | 87 |
| C.J. | Spiller | BUF | 77 | -1.1725 | 88 |
| Jason | Witten | DAL | N/A | -1.1736 | 89 |
| Matt | Moore | CAR | 76 | -1.2258 | 90 |
| Robert | Meachem | NO | 82 | -1.6414 | 91 |
| Dez | Bryant | DAL | 80 | -1.6805 | 92 |
| Steven | Smith | NYG | 88 | -1.8185 | 93 |
| Alex | Smith | SF | 77 | -1.9671 | 94 |
| Heath | Miller | PIT | N/A | -2.0183 | 95 |
| Hakeem | Nicks | NYG | 81 | -2.0929 | 96 |
| David | Garrard | JAC | 79 | -2.2176 | 97 |
| Donald | Driver | GB | 89 | -2.2755 | 98 |
| Vince | Young | TEN | 79 | -2.4023 | 99 |
| Mark | Sanchez | NYJ | 82 | -2.4541 | 100 |
| Chaz | Schilens | OAK | 73 | -2.5117 | 101 |
| Fred | Davis | WAS | N/A | -2.5781 | 102 |
| Ahmad | Bradshaw | NYG | 78 | -2.6001 | 103 |
| Kenny | Britt | TEN | 82 | -2.6013 | 104 |
| Todd | Heap | BAL | N/A | -2.6653 | 105 |
| Roy | Williams | DAL | 82 | -2.7485 | 106 |
| Jeremy | Maclin | PHI | 81 | -2.7711 | 107 |
| Kevin | Boss | NYG | N/A | -2.8253 | 108 |
| LaDainian | Tomlinson | NYJ | 82 | -2.8400 | 109 |
| Brian | Westbrook | SF | 82 | -2.8400 | 109 |
| Arian | Foster | HOU | 67 | -2.8954 | 111 |
| Steve | Slaton | HOU | 76 | -2.9007 | 112 |
| Donald | Brown | IND | 78 | -2.9658 | 113 |
| Devin | Thomas | WAS | 74 | -3.0200 | 114 |
| Austin | Collie | IND | 76 | -3.1089 | 115 |
| Chad | Henne | MIA | 79 | -3.1413 | 116 |
| Chris | Chambers | KC | 82 | -3.2091 | 117 |
| Chris | Cooley | WAS | N/A | -3.3474 | 118 |
| Jay | Cutler | CHI | 83 | -3.3637 | 119 |
| Dustin | Keller | NYJ | N/A | -3.6673 | 120 |
| Mike | Wallace | PIT | 78 | -3.8760 | 121 |
| Ben | Watson | CLE | N/A | -3.9218 | 122 |
| Fred | Jackson | BUF | 83 | -4.3400 | 123 |
| Chester | Taylor | CHI | 79 | -4.3805 | 124 |
| Mohamed | Massaquoi | CLE | 75 | -4.4818 | 125 |
| Matt | Leinart | ARZ | 75 | -4.6051 | 126 |
| Jason | Campbell | OAK | 83 | -4.6124 | 127 |
| Wes | Welker | NE | 91 | -4.6169 | 128 |
| Kevin | Walter | HOU | 77 | -4.6859 | 129 |
| Devin | Aromashodu | CHI | 70 | -4.8197 | 130 |
| Santonio | Holmes | NYJ | 87 | -4.8231 | 131 |
| Derrick | Mason | BAL | 85 | -4.8366 | 132 |
| Reggie | Bush | NO | 80 | -4.8972 | 133 |
| Matt | Cassel | KC | 78 | -4.9638 | 134 |
| Ricky | Williams | MIA | 87 | -4.9730 | 135 |
| Mario | Manningham | NYG | 76 | -5.0606 | 136 |
| Jerricho | Cotchery | NYJ | 85 | -5.1181 | 137 |
| Darren | McFadden | OAK | 77 | -5.1876 | 138 |
| Donnie | Avery | STL | 75 | -5.1921 | 139 |
| Willis | McGahee | BAL | 83 | -5.3297 | 140 |
| Mike | Williams | SEA | 61 | -5.3764 | 141 |
| Devin | Hester | CHI | 78 | -5.5205 | 142 |
| Steve | Breaston | ARZ | 80 | -5.6990 | 143 |
| Josh | Cribbs | CLE | 78 | -5.8662 | 144 |
| Ben | Tate | HOU | 72 | -5.8926 | 145 |
| Johnny | Knox | CHI | 75 | -5.9216 | 146 |
| Julian | Edelman | NE | 76 | -5.9500 | 147 |
| Legedu | Naanee | SD | 69 | -6.1158 | 148 |
| Antonio | Bryant | CIN | 83 | -6.2387 | 149 |
| Kyle | Orton | DEN | 80 | -6.3659 | 150 |
| Jabar | Gaffney | DEN | 75 | -6.5295 | 151 |
| Matthew | Stafford | DET | 80 | -6.5889 | 152 |
| Laurence | Maroney | NE | 78 | -6.6570 | 153 |
| Torry | Holt | NE | 79 | -6.7585 | 154 |
| Cadillac | Williams | TB | 77 | -6.7728 | 155 |
| Larry | Johnson | WAS | 81 | -6.7799 | 156 |
| Montario | Hardesty | CLE | 74 | -6.9087 | 157 |
| Tim | Hightower | ARZ | 79 | -7.0465 | 158 |
| Bernard | Berrian | MIN | 75 | -7.2782 | 159 |
| Sam | Bradford | STL | 80 | -7.3016 | 160 |
| Marshawn | Lynch | BUF | 81 | -7.4101 | 161 |
| Mike | Bell | PHI | 77 | -7.5564 | 162 |
| Josh | Freeman | TB | 77 | -7.7745 | 163 |
| Tashard | Choice | DAL | 77 | -8.2820 | 164 |
| Trent | Edwards | BUF | 70 | -8.5792 | 165 |
| Jake | Delhomme | CLE | 74 | -9.1907 | 166 |
| Derrick | Ward | TB | 75 | -9.3257 | 167 |
| Toby | Gerhart | MIN | 71 | -9.6186 | 168 |
| Leon | Washington | NYJ | 80 | -9.8577 | 169 |
| Julius | Jones | SEA | 77 | -10.6168 | 170 |
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