Maddenized RB Ranks, TE Ranks, and Revisiting Decay

By Thief
for fantasysportsthief.com

Sponsored by

Published: August 23, 2010

What’s up Thief Nation! We’re just about 3 weeks away from the start of Fantasy Football 2011, which means 95% of us will be drafting over these next few weeks. I’ve got the first of three drafts (the only snake style one) scheduled for this Wednesday. That gives me little time to finalize my rankings and get the information in order. Today, I will post my updated rankings for Running Backs and I’ll post the rankings for Tight Ends for the first time. Tomorrow, I’ll post a final list of information for you. It will contain all positions, all rank scores, and all Madden ranks. I’ll also post a link to a Google Docs webpage where you can easily access the information and print out your own cheatsheets.

But before we get to the ranks, I want to touch on an old fantasy sports topic that holds it’s highest level of relevance right here in fantasy football: Decaying Assets. The theory of the Decaying Assets, as created by yours truly, is based off the notion of an Options Derivative Contract in Stock trading. Essentially, every player in the known fantasy sports universe is considered an ‘Asset’. As such, they have a projected payoff during the course of a season, like an investment. In fantasy sports, that ‘payoff’ is the players accumulated stats. For instance, in 2010, Adrian Peterson’s ‘payoff’ for the whole season was a little over 1800 total yards and 18 touchdowns.

If only we knew with 100% certainty what Adrian Peterson or Tom Brady or Jahvid Best’s 2011 ‘payoff’ will be. Unfortunately, barring a crystal ball, we have no way of knowing for sure what each player’s stats will be at the end of the season. However, what we can do is make a reasonable guess based on past performance, team, ability, comparable players, and various other factors. For instance, we can reasonably assume that Aaron Rodgers will throw for over 4000 passing yards this season. We can reasonably assume that Antonio Gates will have a top 3 season for tight ends which will be comparable to a top 3 season from years passed.

OK, nothing new here. All I’ve done so far is make the case for projected stats, and argue that they are our best alternative to determine what a player’s expected payoff will be. However, I’ve only given this argument based on the beginning of the season. Most fantasy players (that is, those of us who actually do use projected stats, as opposed to blindly looking at rankings) use projected stats just in the preseason and then throw them away once the draft is done.

In actuality, projected stats have their most value AFTER the draft has taken place, and hold that value throughout the season.

Let’s harken back to this notion of Decaying Assets. If I tell you that Steven Jackson is projected to score 7 touchdowns in 2011, for a myriad of reasons such as he’s averaged 7 touchdowns in his six years of service, and we come to week 8 of the fantasy football season and Steven Jackson has zero touchdowns on the year, what would you make of the situation? What if I also told you he was projected to rush for 1500 yards on the season, and to that same week 8 of the year, he was on pace to rush for just over 1400?

Most people out there, the people we take advantage of in this game, would say ‘Steven Jackson stinks, he can’t score a TD, I need a new RB’. God bless them, without these buffoons we’d have no one to swindle. Not us, no we view it as ‘Steven Jackson has averaged 7 touchdowns in every year of his career, this year is no different and he looks healthy and fine as evidenced by his rushing yard total. With zero touchdowns through week 8, and needing to get to 7 by seasons end to meet his average, Steven Jackson is a screaming BUY for us down the stretch’.

Indeed, this exact scenario played out last year. I was able to trade for Steven Jackson, at a price of pennies on the dollar (I moved Donald Driver for him in a straight up deal) because my opponent was focused on what Jackson had done prior to that point, whilst I was focused on what he was poised to do going forward. As an asset, Jackson hadn’t decayed as much as he should.

Think of it this way: I you project Maurice Jones Drew to rush for 1700 yards and score 17 touchdowns over the course of the season, then you are expecting him to average 100yds and 1 td per game. Now we all know he’s not gonna average exactly 100 yards and 1 td per game.In fact, by mid season, one of three things will have happened:

1) he averages more than 100 yards and 1 td per game. At this point you have to make a decision, either you believe he will have a better year than you originally predicted, or you believe his total ‘payoff’ has decayed quicker than his average pace making him a likely Sell High candidate. If by the halfway point, MJD has scored 11 TD’s, then you either believe he’s going to score 22 on the season or you believe he’s only got 6 td’s left in him this year.

2) he average less than 100 yards and 1 td per game. In this case, the opposite of #1 occurs. You either adjust down your projections, or you believe this guy is a prime Buy Low. If by midseason MJD has scored 6 td’s, you’re either thinking he’s going to get only 12 on the season, or you believe he is in for one hell of a second half.

3) he more or less averages 100 yards and 1td per game. In which case, your Asset is decaying at a normal and even pace through the season. He is neither a buy high, nor a sell low.

So there you have it. All players in fantasy sports are decaying assets. Their total payoff on the year is the stats they accumulate, and our best guess at those stats are our projections. It’s important to constantly update your projections throughout the season, with the majority of tinkering coming in the preseason and only slight adjustments (say due to a teammate getting injured) during the regular season. Then as the season progresses, we watch as our Assets ‘decay’ at different paces. Those decaying quicker become Sell Highs and those decaying slower become Buy Lows.

As this season progresses, yours truly will be tracking each players progress, subtracting it from his projected season totals, and issuing you out a weekly (probably starting around week five) Buy Low/Sell High alert. In the meantime, we’ll continue to discuss drafting and trading strategies to make sure you dominate.

Listed below are the RB rankings and TE rankings as promised. Tomorrow I’ll follow up with a final list for you all to use as a cheat sheet. I hope you find this helpful.

Running Backs

FirstName	LastName	Team	Pos	Madden	TOTAL
Adrian	Peterson	MIN	RB	98	19.99042
Maurice	Jones-Drew	JAC	RB	96	17.98633
Chris	Johnson	TEN	RB	99	16.1464
Michael	Turner	ATL	RB	90	15.53554
Ray	Rice	BAL	RB	90	11.14687
Rashard	Mendenhall	PIT	RB	87	10.20185
Steven	Jackson	STL	RB	95	9.095401
Frank	Gore	SF	RB	93	8.542634
Cedric	Benson	CIN	RB	89	7.123345
Shonn	Greene	NYJ	RB	81	5.947983
DeAngelo	Williams	CAR	RB	92	4.891057
Ronnie	Brown	MIA	RB	89	4.010944
Clinton	Portis	WAS	RB	85	3.785348
Jamaal	Charles	KC	RB	87	3.591151
Joseph	Addai	IND	RB	86	3.216878
Ryan	Mathews	SD	RB	77	3.063256
Pierre	Thomas	NO	RB	84	2.81954
Ryan	Grant	GB	RB	88	2.742823
Chris	Wells	ARZ	RB	82	2.377273
Jahvid	Best	DET	RB	75	1.985226
Matt	Forte	CHI	RB	86	1.955819
Brandon	Jacobs	NYG	RB	84	1.904341
Knowshon	Moreno	DEN	RB	82	1.791395
LeSean	McCoy	PHI	RB	79	1.398406
Justin	Forsett	SEA	RB	76	1.22848
Marion	Barber	DAL	RB	84	1.221889
Felix	Jones	DAL	RB	83	0.169937
Jerome	Harrison	CLE	RB	83	-0.13999
Jonathan	Stewart	CAR	RB	88	-0.31392
Thomas	Jones	KC	RB	88	-0.91435
C.J.	Spiller	BUF	RB	77	-1.17252
Michael	Bush	OAK	RB	78	-1.82318
Ahmad	Bradshaw	NYG	RB	78	-2.60014
LaDainian	Tomlinson	NYJ	RB	82	-2.83999
Brian	Westbrook	SF	RB	82	-2.83999
Arian	Foster	HOU	RB	67	-2.89545
Steve	Slaton	HOU	RB	76	-2.9007
Donald	Brown	IND	RB	78	-2.96579
Fred	Jackson	BUF	RB	83	-4.33997
Chester	Taylor	CHI	RB	79	-4.38052
Reggie	Bush	NO	RB	80	-4.89721
Ricky	Williams	MIA	RB	87	-4.97298
Darren	McFadden	OAK	RB	77	-5.18761
Willis	McGahee	BAL	RB	83	-5.32975
Ben	Tate	HOU	RB	72	-5.89263
Laurence	Maroney	NE	RB	78	-6.657
Cadillac	Williams	TB	RB	77	-6.77282
Larry	Johnson	WAS	RB	81	-6.77988
Montario	Hardesty	CLE	RB	74	-6.90867
Tim	Hightower	ARZ	RB	79	-7.04646
Marshawn	Lynch	BUF	RB	81	-7.41013
Mike	Bell	PHI	RB	77	-7.55641
Tashard	Choice	DAL	RB	77	-8.28198
Derrick	Ward	TB	RB	75	-9.32573
Toby	Gerhart	MIN	RB	71	-9.6186
Leon	Washington	NYJ	RB	80	-9.85766
Julius	Jones	SEA	RB	77	-10.6168
Correll	Buckhalter	DEN	RB	78	-10.6317

Tight Ends

FirstName	LastName	Team	Rank Score
Antonio	Gates	SD	9.456572656
Jermichael	Finley	GB	9.100324271
Dallas	Clark	IND	9.034890895
Vernon	Davis	SF	7.646249232
Visanthe	Shiancoe	MIN	5.748681306
Brent	Celek	PHI	4.697691423
Kellen	Winslow	TB	1.770944739
Owen	Daniels	HOU	0.316869699
Greg	Olsen	CHI	0.186002946
John	Carlson	SEA	0.186002946
Tony	Gonzalez	ATL	-2.108221096
Zach	Miller	OAK	-2.188195223
Heath	Miller	PIT	-3.72224439
Fred	Davis	WAS	-4.28206328
Todd	Heap	BAL	-4.369307782
Kevin	Boss	NYG	-4.529256037
Jason	Witten	DAL	-4.882289901
Chris	Cooley	WAS	-7.056132085
Dustin	Keller	NYJ	-7.376028593
Ben	Watson	CLE	-7.630491725

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What do you have to say?

Konglong_Stomp

So if we're looking for the $1 TEs, looks like we'll pretty much have to settle with Greg Olsen and below? And I'm in a critical match-up for the first seed in my division for morskie's league, who would you guys roll with on Tuesday? Carmona and Floyd have been terrible over their last 2 starts, but they have the easier match-ups.Gavin Floyd vs . BALFausto Carmona vs. OAKDerek Lowe @ Colorado
morskie

The Sons of Buck (O's) have been playing above their weak reputation. Fausto could be getting tired … duno… I'd avoid both if you have better matchups later in the week…P.S. Did you see that i had to boot yet another quitter? Grr… so annoying… Also, i posted in the Football league… check it out =)
Biglil

Thief, in looking at the rankings it seems as though some ot the TE's can give you big returns. But, those are the guys you said to draft last, is that simply because the WR, QB and RB can net more value in a trade/points per week? I kind of get the idea that you can always trade for one fo those guys from a position of strength. Is that the idea?
Biglil

When i say one fo thsoe guys I mean TE's.
The_Thief

For TE's, there's always value to be had from the bottom of the group. Think of it this way, if you play in a 12 team league that starts 3rb's, then 100% of the starting RBs in the NFL will be taken. If you start 1 TE, then roughly 20% of the starting TE's in the NFL will be taken. Plenty of talent to go around.
http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/4NGGHYYMQBHIINDPPLPS4OR4TA Carlos S.

Thief, did a mock last night…it's my 2nd one only and it'll be my 1st time playing fantasy football and it's a 10 team league so check it out.QB. BradyWR. Roddy WhiteWR. OchoWR. Santana MossRB. MJDRB. Ronnie BrownTE. Owen DanielsD. EaglesK. BironasB. AddaiB. T.OB. FlaccoI stopped drafting here due to technical difficulties LOL! Let me know whatcha think. Thanks!
http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/DEDM7E3OF77KKYKCQGXLDL6YMI Bla

1 crazy auction later, where some were saving money, some overpaying favorites0.5 PPR, 6p TD QB Rodgers RB Turner, MendenhallWR Miles Austin, WelkerTE Zach MillerFlex Hines WardBN Vince Young, Felix Jones, Run DMC, TO, Gaffney + (one injury dropped)We also have several defensive players.I'd want to get Forte from a guy who has Colston/Breaston WR and Forte/Moreno RB with some dodgy backups. Looking at my team vs his I would probably have to overpay…got any ideas ?
The_Thief

A+ draft. That said, I'd be SHOCKED if you scored this good of a squad for real.
The_Thief

Send him TO, Ward, Jones. Ask for colston n forte.
http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/ZCBXCUMYYGXQZ6PUILHIEDJVJ4 Matt S

Hey Thief/Thief Nation,I inherited a pretty good team in a keeper league, and have to choose 4 of the following guys to keep for this upcoming season:R. Moss, Brady, Clark, Marshall, Mendenhall, S. JacksonThis league is a bit different than standard and has the following positions:QB3 WR2 RBTE1 WR/TE1 WR/RBKDEFTop 3 in my mind are Moss, Jackson, Mendenhall…and my initial reaction was to keep Brady as well However, considering the fact that it seems WRs have extra value in this league, would I be better off keeping Marshall? Which 4 would you keep?
http://pulse.yahoo.com/_M3VFKQGQQWG3UNL2RW2AYMUNTA Drew Hittner

I just completed a mock draft, and wanted to share my results with everyone. I tried to utilize thief's ranking system as best as I could. MOCK DRAFTS ARE A BLAST!!Here's the turnout.1. Maurice Jones-Drew (Jac – RB) 2. Larry Fitzgerald (Ari – WR) 3. Chad Ochocinco (Cin – WR) 4. Clinton Portis (Was – RB) 5. T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Sea – WR) 6. Brandon Jacobs (NYG – RB) 7. Joe Flacco (Bal – QB) 8. Braylon Edwards (NYJ – WR) 9. Justin Forsett (Sea – RB) 10. Greg Olsen (Chi – TE) 11. John Kasay (Car – K) 12. Indianapolis (Ind – DEF) 13. Demetrius Williams (Bal – WR) 14. Mark Sanchez (NYJ – QB) 15. Tennessee (Ten – DEF)
http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/DEDM7E3OF77KKYKCQGXLDL6YMI Bla

Sent. Also a guy with S. Rice has Sims/Crabtree as other two WRs with Beanie/Addai as RBs. I'm thinking Jones + TO/Ward for one of the RBs. I start with Beanie and take Addai if he counters, right ?
morskie

Just completed a 12 team yahoo mock auction. here's how i did… $$'s removed for competitive reasons 1. Adrian Peterson (Min – RB) 2. Randy Moss (NE – WR) 3. Brandon Marshall (Mia – WR) 4. Ronnie Brown (Mia – RB) 5. Dwayne Bowe (KC – WR) 6. Philip Rivers (SD – QB) 7. Clinton Portis (Was – RB) 8. Jerome Harrison (Cle – RB)9. Vincent Jackson (SD – WR) 10. Matt Hasselbeck (Sea – QB) 11. Chaz Schilens (Oak – WR) 12. Fred Jackson (Buf – RB) 13. Dustin Keller (NYJ – TE) 14. Chicago (Chi – DEF) 15. Jay Feely (Ari – K)
morskie

Yeah — Moss, Marshall, SJax and Mendenhall…
http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/V5JT2FFLWEQK73GZX4JQAVEEBE qwan

Way to go on the chicago defense! Nice receiving core. I wonder how much you paid for AP though:-) Good depth. I give it a B+.
acsparks714

Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the White Sox plan to claim Manny Ramirez once he hits waivers this week.Manny has a little bit more left in the tank than most think. He has still managed to hit over .300 with a slugging percentage better than .500 even these last two years. Of course, the injury concerns are starting to mount, but he could help a team in the closing stretch. Even a team like, say, the Dodgers.
morskie

you'll find out Sept 4 haha
The_Thief

IF you can score a better RB via the draft (like Peterson or CJ or MJD) then I'd dump one of the RBs. If not, then I'd dump Brady.
The_Thief

You took Portis too soon. He could be had around the same time as Flacco. No need to step up.
The_Thief

Eh. Not as much value in those guys. I wouldn't. Swing for the fences first.
The_Thief

Now THATS an A+ attainable draft. Well done. Keller at TE, perfect!
The_Thief

Hey they're saying Sidney Rice out half the season
http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/V5JT2FFLWEQK73GZX4JQAVEEBE qwan

This is true. He should have gotten the off season hip surgery. But, he didnt and now he has to sit out. Too bad for those guys who drafted him already. This is the same injury that has been plaguing him since his rookie season.
morskie

Thanks! I'm going to try to get into a 14 team mock… but those never get more than half full, and i hate the bots lol
http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/V5JT2FFLWEQK73GZX4JQAVEEBE qwan

Oh I may and I may not find out. I may just find out how much you are willing to pay lol.
morskie

This is no doubt going to have a ripple effect on the values of other guys… is there anyone that can step up and be the man while Rice is out?
golfin14

Hey thief, still gearing up for the draft tonight at 6:30. Sorry but i'm still confused a little and trying to figure this out. Few more questions..1. Do I def. need to grab a QB at least in round 4? It looks like Flacco ( I live in Baltimore though) and Palmer have been going in the 10th and 11th rounds, so should I wait until later rounds to grab one of them or just get a better QB in round 4 like Rivers or possibly even Brady?2. my league has 2 RB's and 2 WR's with one flex positon of WR/TE…so that's 5 positions right there.Then add a QB and that puts me in round 7…so then from there I should I get best available for rounds 7 and 8 for backups for those positions, and then 9 thru 11 go for TE, Def, and K right?3. I have a feeling I'm goin to get stuck with a 6-9 pick in round 1…so I should go RB how far on your rankings before I would take Moss?…Mendenhall? Jackson? Gore
golfin14

I'm also just wondering how important it is to get backups for the RB and WR positions, like how many I need?
golfin14

So ok if I have the 6th pick and CJ, AP, MJD, Turner, Rice are gone…then who do I take at 6?….i know you said Moss is 6 or 7 overall, but in this case what would you do for picking 6?
http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/V5JT2FFLWEQK73GZX4JQAVEEBE qwan

What does your QB get for passing TD's?
http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/V5JT2FFLWEQK73GZX4JQAVEEBE qwan

If its 2RB spots and 3 WR positions. Get 4 RBs and 4 to 5 WR's at least. Get a nice amount of depth to cover yourself from injuries. Waivers and trades will help down the line.
http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/V5JT2FFLWEQK73GZX4JQAVEEBE qwan

Berrian maybe? Shiancoe gets a boost too.
golfin14

6 pts
acsparks714

The bots are AWFUL on yahoo. They need to fix it where they only bid one dollar at a time instead of jumping from $20 to $65 in the case of AP or Chris Johnson.
golfin14

Ok, well one of the WR spots is actually a flex WR/TE…so I should look at TE more then right?….
dubcity

start Beckett vs SEA tonight? (for Wins/Ks)
http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/V5JT2FFLWEQK73GZX4JQAVEEBE qwan

Take into consideration thief said add additional 2 pts to each QB's rank score from Brees to like Rivers because they get a little bit of boost over other players with 6pts/td.
morskie

There are no guarantees with Big Flop Beckett… not even Seattle… proceed with caution…
golfin14

With 2 potential options to fill the TE spot it seems hard to just keep drafting backups when I have empty TE spots. you know what I mean?
http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/V5JT2FFLWEQK73GZX4JQAVEEBE qwan

Yeah TE could be an option to use. But, after Winslow TE's are very mariginal hit or miss week to week. Under one after that could be a plug and play (flex option) When your WR is on a bye or Questionable or Out with injury. Some TE's get a TD but very little yards. A good tight day is like at least 10-15 fantasy pts. Like a TD or 2. And above 40 or 50 receiving yards.To be honest I'd rather have an Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon, T.J Housh, or Donald Driver over say Greg Olsen, Carlson, or Zach Miller.
golfin14

ok got it
golfin14

Thats a good point…so the first 6 rounds should I not even try to grab one, unless in like round 5 a higher ranked one is available?
morskie

I would still employ the strategy of grabbing a TE late in the draft, even tho you have potentially to slots where you can use a TE. You would be better off using a WR at the W/T flex spot anyway, and you'll get better value in the middle rounds instead of reaching for a TE…
morskie

Talk about streaky… Kid Stanton is 1 for 20 with 9k's since being named NL Player of the Week…
The_Thief

Harvin
Jason

Hey thief just finished drafting my team for the season… its a 10 team league.. We have also have a defensive player slot.. How do u think i did??1. Michael Turner RB2. Rashard Mendenhall RB3. Miles Austin WR4. Chad Ochocinco WR5. Sidney Rice WR6. Joseph Addai RB7. Joe Flacco QB8. Justin Forsett RB9. Kellen Winslow TE10. Matt Ryan QB11. New Orleans DEF12. Clinton Portis RB13. Braylon Edwards WR14. David Akers K15. James Harrison LB16. Greg Olsen TE
Biglil

The only problem is S. Rice. Any chance you can trade Addai for Crabtree?
Biglil

Any chance AP takes a hit? Harvin is supposedly dealing with migrains. You don't see that being an issue?
Jason

i dont think i could do that.. the guy that have him wont trade him for anything right now… heres some wr in my waiver wire thoughDevin AromashoduKenny BrittJacoby JonesEddie RoyalMohamed MassaquoiJulian EdelmanAustin CollieKevin WalterDevin ThomasDonnie AveryRoy WilliamsChris ChambersAny of them worth a pick up for sidney rice??
The_Thief

see my latest post
The_Thief

i'd say one per open slot. So if you start two rb's, get two backups ets.
The_Thief

yes
The_Thief

ugh, you missed the news on Sidney Rice. My friggin Twitter is down, sorrybout that. Otherwise, very solid group.
The_Thief

no chance at all. Favre will make Harvin a superstar. they also just signedJavon Walker. Could be a nice sleeper.
The_Thief

Chris Chambers, but do you not have an IR slot? I wouldn't exactly drop Riceeither…
Jason

maybe ill stash him for a while… but do you think i might need another qb becuz flacco and matt ryan have the same bye week.. who do u think i should trade away and try to get?? thanks…
The_Thief

WAY too early to think bout bye weeks. You'll have dealt one of them waybefore then. Sellin High of course!
Jason

you right way too early… thanks a lot thief…
The_Thief

That's what I'm here for!

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Peyton Manning (neck surgeries) expects to meet with Colts owner Jim Irsay this week to discuss his future with the team.

NFL suspends Steelers TE Saunders 4 games - Weslye Saunders | PIT

NFL suspended TE Weslye Saunders four games for violating the league's policy on performance enhancing substances.

Report: Knowshon Moreno arrested for DUI - Knowshon Moreno | DEN

FOX 31 Denver reports that Knowshon Moreno was arrested on drunken driving charges on February 1.

Steelers tab Todd Haley to coordinate offense - Steelers Offense | PIT

Steelers hired Todd Haley as offensive coordinator.

Pats confirm McDaniels as new o-coordinator - Patriots Offense | NE

Patriots named Josh McDaniels offensive coordinator.

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