Published: September 1, 2010
I came out of the whole ordeal feeling like I went 10 rounds with Mike Tyson. No, not the Mike Tyson that knocked out fools in the ring so oft they made a video game after him. The other one, the one that bites ears off and spits it back at you. Yeah, in short, tough draft. I suppose it’s partly my own fault though. You know, we’re sort of conditioned in this sport game we play to believe that women aren’t any good. I mean, I’m standing here telling you Lady Thief knows an insane amount about football, and yet I still went into the draft thinking – this will be easier than the last. Sure there were a couple of cupcake players there, and sure they got smoked, but in an auction there only needs to be a few snakes in the grass to make life tough. Couple that with the fact that I’m literally posting my entire playbook on this website (which admittedly is a little bit ignorant to do) and you have the recipe for a rough night.
Notable contenders in this bunch include my father (yes, it’s one of those leagues) who went toe to toe with me in the Super Bowl last year, and a cousin of mine whom used to play in the league I run until I had to boot him due to incessant delayed entry fee payments (so yeah, some bad blood). Oh, and of course the Lady Thief herself. The league is structured with 12 teams, 2 divisions and the lone mistake I made was assuming she used the standard roster settings. Little did I know, she reduced the roster settings by 1 RB. That’s an enormous difference, and one I didn’t realize until about 1/3 the way through the draft.
When we began there were 4 teams delayed from signing in due to technical difficulties. This wouldn’t have been a big deal aside from the 3 other teams in the league that really made them pay for being late. You see, I learned that from these 3 teams that by nominating a kicker right off the bat, you’re guaranteed to have said autobot drafter take the kicker for an obscene “average” price of like $10. So halfway through round one we had three kickers off the board and three pretty angry managers. In my opinion, serves you right for not testing out the software and signing in early.
The first major player to come up for auction was Chris Johnson. The bidding was frantic of course, however I stayed on the sidelines and just watched. To my surprise, he was landed for $74 to none other than my cousin. To put that in perspective, $74 in a 12 team league is equivalent to at least $80 in a 14 team league of the same roster setup. Still, my ceiling on Peterson (which I can now tell you since I safely have him in three leagues) was $90. No, I didn’t want it to get there, but I figured anything above $90 and he’s all yours. So when CJ went off the board at $74, I felt pretty confident that this meant AP would go for less than $74.
The hardest thing about bidding on a top guy, when everyone else knows you want him, is that everyone else knows you’ll pay top dollar for him. I learned this the hard way as both Lady Thief, my dad, and one other team pushed me up to $77 to land Automatic Paydirt. You know you’re playing in a competitive league when your opponents make you pay an uncomfortable amount for a top guy. Well done opponents, well done.
Nonetheless, AP in hand I felt good about my prospects going forward. I knew I had just blown through any chances of landing Moss on this squad as well, since I was looking at needing to fill two more running back spots. Did you catch the mistake there? I only really needed to fill one, not two. Yeah I caught that mistake too, about 20 players later.
I’ll not bore you with the round to round action. It was good don’t get me wrong. Every single guy I have earmarked for a super year was torn from me by greedy bidders. Randy Moss went for $45, Pierre Thomas went for $41, heck even Joe Flacco went for $21. The price on these guys outweighed the benefit I had been looking for (was hoping for Moss in the 30′s, PT in the low 30′s, and Flacco closer to 10). The absolute worst though was Clinton Portis, who was taken for $6. That $6 was $1 higher than my $5 max bid, and went to a team with more excess loot that also reads this blog.
So the final team looks like this:
Palmer / Ryan
Automatic Paydirt
Steven Jackson
Brandon Marshall (hint, hint, hint)
Dwayne Bowe (hint, hint, hint)
Jeremy Shockey (at a $1 steal)
and a great bench of Santana Moss, TJ Housh, Michael Bush, Mike Williams (of TB, bigtime sleeper), Cadillac Williams, and Thomas Jones.
Of course, I’m sure you’re curious who SHE took for a team:
Stafford / Rothlisraper
Turner
Pierre Thomas
Roddy White
DeShaun Jackson
John Carlson
That’s a pretty strong squad. Especially considering she nabbed Esteban Ocho Cinco from me, who will no doubt be starting over D Jax soon enough.
So now for some insights. First up, HER strategy. Of course, she all too familiar with the notion that QB’s aren’t worth as much as RB’s and WR’s. She was also targeting Joe Flacco but at $21, we both asked ‘where’s the value in that pick?’. So she audibled and went with the Stafford/Big Ben combo. I’ve actually seen quite a number of teams doing this and I have to say it’s a solid idea. Stafford has all the tools to have a breakout year this year (though I do not value him above Palmer or Flacco like yahoo and rotowire do!). But more importantly, when Ben is back, she’s set up with a bona fide top 10 Qb. Those two picks cost her a combined total of $4. Those two picks allowed her to steal both PT and Ocho from me. In fact, the PT Bruiser bidding war was fierce between us. You have to picture us both, side by side, laptops in hand, empty pizza box in front of us, not saying a word and just staring at the screen hitting the +$1 button just as time ticks down to 2 seconds repeatedly. Meanwhile the entire chat room is buzzing comments like ‘Domestic Violence Alert!’.
Another insight: stop spending your time preparing for your draft by looking at the top 40 or so guys. The battle is won by those late late picks we make. We all know the Petersons and Johnsons and Breesuseses and Mannings. The difference maker in the season will be those end of the draft snags that we’ll turn into golden 2-1 trade opportunities down the road. Guys that are going for under $4 that fall into this category are Sanatana Moss, Mike Williams, Jerome Harrison, Cadillac Williams (shhhh they just booted Derek Ward from the team), Thomas Jones, Clinton Portis, Ben The Rapist, Donald Brown (Addai is in a contract year), Kenny Britt, TJ Housh, Matt Hasslebeck, Leon Washington, Terrell Owens, Michael Bush and Carson Palmer.
The best thing you can do once you enter that draft room is to start loading up your queue with these guys (and any others you can think of that you like). Pop them in there while the bidding is long and obvious. Have them prepared for when the draft gets late and you’re ready to switch from nominating those you don’t want, to nominating those you do want (around the sub $10 mark).
Anyway, as tough as this was, it’s nothing compared to what’s coming on Monday. I feel like this was a perfect practice run though. I was able to gauge bidding and see who the buzz players are. Still, in a league of 16 guys with many years experience and at least half of them reading this blog, there’s no doubt more prep work to be done.
But you know, one thing THEY will never understand is how small the importance of the draft really is to US. I know my boy AC hears me when I’m saying this. It’s almost guaranteed that he, I, you, all of us will have traded more than half our team by seasons end. That is where the skill comes in. That is how we win. By buying low, by selling high, and by dominating the competition.
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