I came out of the whole ordeal feeling like I went 10 rounds with Mike Tyson. No, not the Mike Tyson that knocked out fools in the ring so oft they made a video game after him. The other one, the one that bites ears off and spits it back at you. Yeah, in short, tough draft. I suppose it’s partly my own fault though. You know, we’re sort of conditioned in this sport game we play to believe that women aren’t any good. I mean, I’m standing here telling you Lady Thief knows an insane amount about football, and yet I still went into the draft thinking – this will be easier than the last. Sure there were a couple of cupcake players there, and sure they got smoked, but in an auction there only needs to be a few snakes in the grass to make life tough. Couple that with the fact that I’m literally posting my entire playbook on this website (which admittedly is a little bit ignorant to do) and you have the recipe for a rough night.

Notable contenders in this bunch include my father (yes, it’s one of those leagues) who went toe to toe with me in the Super Bowl last year, and a cousin of mine whom used to play in the league I run until I had to boot him due to incessant delayed entry fee payments (so yeah, some bad blood). Oh, and of course the Lady Thief herself. The league is structured with 12 teams, 2 divisions and the lone mistake I made was assuming she used the standard roster settings. Little did I know, she reduced the roster settings by 1 RB. That’s an enormous difference, and one I didn’t realize until about 1/3 the way through the draft.

When we began there were 4 teams delayed from signing in due to technical difficulties. This wouldn’t have been a big deal aside from the 3 other teams in the league that really made them pay for being late. You see, I learned that from these 3 teams that by nominating a kicker right off the bat, you’re guaranteed to have said autobot drafter take the kicker for an obscene “average” price of like $10. So halfway through round one we had three kickers off the board and three pretty angry managers. In my opinion, serves you right for not testing out the software and signing in early.

The first major player to come up for auction was Chris Johnson. The bidding was frantic of course, however I stayed on the sidelines and just watched. To my surprise, he was landed for $74 to none other than my cousin. To put that in perspective, $74 in a 12 team league is equivalent to at least $80 in a 14 team league of the same roster setup. Still, my ceiling on Peterson (which I can now tell you since I safely have him in three leagues) was $90. No, I didn’t want it to get there, but I figured anything above $90 and he’s all yours. So when CJ went off the board at $74, I felt pretty confident that this meant AP would go for less than $74.

The hardest thing about bidding on a top guy, when everyone else knows you want him, is that everyone else knows you’ll pay top dollar for him. I learned this the hard way as both Lady Thief, my dad, and one other team pushed me up to $77 to land Automatic Paydirt. You know you’re playing in a competitive league when your opponents make you pay an uncomfortable amount for a top guy. Well done opponents, well done.

Nonetheless, AP in hand I felt good about my prospects going forward. I knew I had just blown through any chances of landing Moss on this squad as well, since I was looking at needing to fill two more running back spots. Did you catch the mistake there? I only really needed to fill one, not two. Yeah I caught that mistake too, about 20 players later.

I’ll not bore you with the round to round action. It was good don’t get me wrong. Every single guy I have earmarked for a super year was torn from me by greedy bidders. Randy Moss went for $45, Pierre Thomas went for $41, heck even Joe Flacco went for $21. The price on these guys outweighed the benefit I had been looking for (was hoping for Moss in the 30’s, PT in the low 30’s, and Flacco closer to 10). The absolute worst though was Clinton Portis, who was taken for $6. That $6 was $1 higher than my $5 max bid, and went to a team with more excess loot that also reads this blog.

So the final team looks like this:

Palmer / Ryan

Automatic Paydirt

Steven Jackson

Brandon Marshall (hint, hint, hint)

Dwayne Bowe (hint, hint, hint)

Jeremy Shockey (at a $1 steal)

and a great bench of Santana Moss, TJ Housh, Michael Bush, Mike Williams (of TB, bigtime sleeper), Cadillac Williams, and Thomas Jones.

Of course, I’m sure you’re curious who SHE took for a team:

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Here’s another quick hit list of players I’m looking to avoid on draft day. Listed with each player is the reasoning behind my feelings. For many of these guys, it has to do with price/position, so obviously if things change I could end up with one of them.

Before I begin the list, one piece of auction advice. It’s in vogue these days for Joe Schmoe fantasy sportswriter to talk about auction strategies and to be giving you advice. The good advice they are giving is to nominate a player you have no interest in, but others do, in the early goings. For us, that’s guys like Drew Brees and Peyton Manning. It’s always smart to take money out of your opponents pockets. The less they have in the bank, the less likely they are to get into a bidding war with you.

The bad advice: bidding up players you don’t want. First are foremost, this is a surefire way to end up with a guy that you don’t want at a price you don’t like. Rest assured there’ll be plenty of morons in the room to do this for you. But it goes beyond that. Check it out, if I’m looking to draft Randy Moss, and someone just nominated Andre Johnson, I actually PREFER him to go cheaper than expensive. You see, people only have the prices that have been paid to use as a benchmark for their own bidding. If Andre Johnson goes for $45, then when I push the price on Randy up to $40, some no brain jack wagon is gonna say ‘Hey, he’s still cheaper than Andre, so I can bid him up’. Likewise, if Andre Johnson goes for $35, when Randy gets to $36 the same jack wagon is gonna say ‘No way am I paying more for Moss than what blahbiddy boop paid for Andre Johnson’. Ya feel me here?

I know I know, we don’t want them getting good deals and whatnot. Listen, prices paid is a small component of how WE win this thing. The bigger component deals with things like: knowing to wait on QB’s, knowing that Randy is a better add than Andre, knowing that Ocho will go cheaper than his worth, knowing we can steal Portis and Flacco on the cheapy cheap. This gets back to my earlier post where we talked about the feeling that you’re going against just one other team. Someone gets Andre on the cheap, someone else gets Turner or Mendy on the cheap and instantly you feel like they went to the same team. Most likely they didn’t, so don’t pay attention at all to what other people got. Stick with your gameplan, bid for your players, and execute.

Players I Don’t Wanna Touch With a Remote Control

OK real quick I gotta explain that last statement. See I have this friend, he’s Serbian and moved here in college. So there’s some US sayings that we got that he doesn’t quite get right. One example occurred when we were trading together. He had a real easy trade that netted a nice profit. He turns to me and wants to say ‘Bato (brother in Serbian) that was a textbook trade’, instead he says to me ‘Bato, that was a school trade’. Yeah, you get it now.

One day we’re talking about this girl we know. She’s cool but apparently he didn’t find her very attractive. So he decides to drop one of these famous one liners he hears, but again messes it up: ‘Bato, she’s so ugly I wouldn’t touch (insert your own word here) her with a remote control!’. Hope you got a good chuckle out of that. Back to the post!

Top Players Bato Wouldn’t Touch With a Remote Control

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Hey all, I figured I’d jump in here with a quick hit list of my top two favorite sleepers this year at QB, RB, and WR. Below each guy I’ve added just a little blurb to back up the decision, and I’ve also included my projections for each of the picks. I’ve got my next draft scheduled for Tuesday so it’s likely that I’ll have an updated top 170 rank list coming out soon. Enjoy!

Quartebacks

1) Joe Flacco (4103 yards, 31 touchdowns, 12 picks)

Flacco has shown a tremendous amount of maturity this off-season. While the addition of Anquan Boldin certainly boosts the Ravens passing attack, the truth is, Flacco has always had the ability and talent around him to be an elite QB, but confidence and maturity held him back. This preseason, we’re seeing confidence in the pocket and sharp long passes as opposed to happy feet and check downs. The Ravens will be a pass first offense this year.

2) Carson Palmer (3899 passing yards, 32 touchdowns, 13 picks)

From 2005 – 2007 Carson Palmer was a top fantasy quarterback. He threw for over 25 touchdowns each season and twice topped 4000 passing yards. Then came the 2008-2009  season injury from a brutal hit to the leg. Palmer came back last year and while he wasn’t perfect, he was pretty damned good. He finished ranked somewhere in the 30’s in most formats and really began to show the qualities again that made him a star. Chad Johnson is one of the most talented WR’s in the league, and is Terrell Owens. This is easily the best 1-2 WR duo in the league. This year, Palmer returns to the top.

Running Backs

1) Clinton Portis (1207 rushing yards, 217 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns)

Portis is a new man, Mike Shanahan can do that to you. He’s working harder at practice, he’s fully committed and he looks good. Portis has always had some of the best talent in the league for backs, but has coupled that with a prima donna attitude and poor workout habits. I’ve seen him going in drafts around the 9th round or for less than $10. That’s simply one of the best deals being offered this year.

2) Pierre Thomas (1304 rushing yards, 267 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns)

This is a new one for me that’s vaulting up my draft board. Fourth year in the league and has improved every season. Has no competition for the ball or for his role due to injuries. Has looked very good in the preseason. It’s the last one that catches me. It seems like New Orleans is going to give Pierre an opportunity to run the ball more and it also seems he likes. I’m seeing Thomas drafted for under $30 and around the 5th round, that’s solid value.

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Ahhhhhhh, one of my very favorite topics to go off on. Readers who’ve been with me for awhile are all too familiar with this argument, and most (though unfortunately not all) of you, have switched over from snake style to auction style. For those people, please chime in the comments section and help me convince the rest of the fantasy world to end the awfulness that is…….snake drafts (blech).

Before we begin, some housekeeping. Fantasy Basketball is here! WOW that seems early. Have no fear ballas, once we are through the baseball playoffs (everyone should be in cruise control mode right now, so long as they don’t own that bum Tim Lincecum!) and the football drafts, I’ll be all over that Collison trade. Until then I’ll be focusing mainly on football particularly due to the heightened importance of drafting.

Also a couple quick notes. Donnie Avery is likely out for the season. I know you don’t really care, but nudge Laurent Robinson up the ranks a bit. I will add this: Madden dead called Bradford as a top notch rookie this year, and he looks to be a solid QB. There could end up being a sneaky passing game in St. Louis, especially since they have such a stud RB. I’m not suggesting you draft Robinson (or Bradford) but I am suggesting you keep Laurent on your radar. In Seattle, Leon Washington seems to have won the hearts of his coaches. Leon is an explosive runner, he’ll be worth the $1-2 you spend to get him. Clinton Portis seems fine, he didn’t even have the ankle wrapped. He is still my biggest sleeper pick this season. As for MJD, DRAFT WITH CAUTION. Same goes for Jamal Charles. With MJD, the injury scares me a ton. I dare not move him down on the ranks, but I’d just let someone else jump on that boat. With Charles, look I was a fan of this guy last year, but he is no feature back. My prediction is there’s a 60% chance he misses games due to injury this year.

Drafts

The Snake

The only benefit you get out of a snake draft is that it’s easy to do. Heck it’s so easy, you literally can use the autodraft and end up with a stellar team. Here’s my two biggest problems with the snake:

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I had my first draft of the season last night and boy was it a doozy. About a month ago a fellow trader at my new shop approached me asking if I’d like to join the office’s fantasy football league. Now I have a rule about fantasy sports that my oldest readers know all too well: I don’t like playing in multiple leagues. In my opinion, it is too hard to find just one league that is chock full of people who actually play fantasy sports, to go around jumping in other leagues. I try to stick to just one league per season, which happens to be the one I’ve run for over a decade now (way back to the days of recording stats out of the newspaper). My league, my true league, consists of 16 guys that eat, live, and dream about fantasy sports. If I’m looking for more, I push the guys to up the entry fee and winnings. One of my biggest pet peeves about having multiple leagues, is that you end up with different teams. This leaves you often in the precarious position of having to root both for and against a player. That’s garbage.

About two years ago, my wife (the Lady Thief) decided she wanted out of public leagues and began running a league herself. I joined for obvious reasons. Playing two teams isn’t ideal, but I was able to reason it by drafting and trading to make both teams have as many of the same starters as I can. Fast forward to a month ago and said fellow trader inviting me into the office league.

Look I don’t walk around with a Fantasy Sports Thief T-Shirt on or anything. Moreover, when I start a new job, I don’t exactly tell everyone about my blog or my addiction hobby of fantasy sports. So obviously, this guy had no idea what he was doing. He mentioned that the league of 12 has been around for a good six years and one member was leaving, thus opening up a spot for me. I couldn’t help myself. I see guys like him and leagues like this coming from a mile away. It’s like I’m a 16 year old fat chick staring at a big box of chocolates having just swore myself to be on a diet: OK I’ll eat just ONE more.

So the setup is 12 teams, four divisions, pretty standard scoring. It’s run on CBS Sports which instantly reinforces the noobishness of the group. Worst part is, it’s a snake draft. Listen, for those of you still running a snake draft, change it. Snakes are stupid. More on that in a future post.

So the draft was last night. We all met in person (I invited them to hold it at my place) to do it. I haven’t had a chance to mock yet this year, new job + blog hinders that, so I was happy that this draft was going to be held before my two upcoming auctions (lady thief league next week, my league the week after). Again, I never ‘informed’ these guys that I knew a lick about fantasy sports. The one moment where I think they started to smell the shark in the water was when Lady Thief, god bless her, walked in the room during the 11th round and talked me into drafting a defense (thanks again hon!) before retreating to the other room to jump into a mock draft (her third one that day). At that moment, they noticed something was amiss.

Below, I’ll go through the rounds, my picks, the other picks that stood out, and any insights I gleaned. But one thing I want to stress before we get into it. Last night I noticed something novel with respect to drafts that I think we all tend to suffer from. I think we all look at drafts and picks as a ‘me vs. you’ type of event. That is, when someone grabs a guy I want, I don’t think of that person in particular, I just think HE got my guy. When another one is taken, I don’t think ‘oh there goes another one’, I think ‘Damnit! HE did it to me again!’. It’s only after the draft that you realize these players never go to the same team, they go to various different teams. In draft, your mind can begin to warp into thinking just HE got those guys and it places pressure on you. This pressure is the source of draft mistakes.

I also noticed what the antidote to this problem is, aside from now actually recognizing. It’s the same thing I’ve been harping on since Thief Nation was born: Game planning. Creating a road map for your draft will ensure that you don’t lose focus, that other picks don’t rattle you off your game. Even if you make a bad pick, your road map will instantly bring you back on track. OK, let’s get to the good stuff!

Round One: this is gonna make you laugh, but I actually scored the #1 overall pick. I know, I know, it’s just not fair. I can honestly tell you, and anyone around will back this up, I never hesitated for one second on that pick, I took Adrian Peterson aka Automatic Paydirt. I stick to my guns and do what I believe and I believe he is the most proven fantasy football scorer out there. End of message.

Since it was the first round, I can’t say there were any particularly ‘good’ picks, but there were several terrible ones. DeAngelo Williams 8th overall, brutal. But it gets worse, Rodgers 10, Manning 11, and SCHAUB 12th!. Only the top 6 RB’s came off the board, plus DeAngeBrutalPick, the QB quartet (including Brees at 6) and Andre Johnson. Safe to say I was happy after round one.

Round Two: Is it Christmas? Must be, because Rashard Mendenhall fell to me at the 24th pick. Shockingly awesome. That’s easily the best 1-2 punch in the league. I’ve no idea why he fell this far, stupidity I guess. I’d say this was the best pick of the round, but it wasn’t. Randy Moss went 21st overall. Yeah I was REALLY hoping he’d fall to me, but if Mendenhall is the consolation prize, I’ll take it.

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Don’t ask me why I chose 170 players, you don’t want to know the answer. OK, I’ll tell you anyway, but in order to do so, I’ve got to give (once again) some insight into HOW I came to these rankings. First things first, I got myself some projected stats. Kudos goes out to Rotowire, as they were my initial source of projections, we’ll call it a template. This template allowed me to download, quite quickly, an entire universe of players. Next step is to segregate these players into positions.

Once players are separated into positions, I can apply a financial statistics concept called ‘Relative Value Analysis’. Essentially, I scan through each player and their projections on my template, and adjust those stats based on my own observations and more importantly, based on the projections of equal players or of a players own past (or alternatively, of past performances by equal players). So if the top RB last year scored 18 tds, and I predict one RB to be this years top scorer, I’m gonna base his predicted td total on that 18 (ok, this is a VERY simplified explanation).

Then we watch the preseason games, injuries, etc and make some more adjustments. This is a fluid process that takes constant rejiggering. For instance, just today I had to adjust my expectations of both Larry Fitzgerald and Sidney Rice. I adjusted Rice way down due to news he will now miss half the season (I placed his rank score at zero, draft at your own risk). I adjusted Fitz down because, well because Leinart apparently can’t hit the broad side of a barn with a pass.

Now it’s modeling time. My model consists of several different factors that culminate in a final ’score’ for a player. Each players score represents how much better he is than the average guy at his position. This is where 170 comes in. I figure in the average 12 team league that drafts 14 players (not including kickers or defense) you’ll have roughly 170 draftable guys. Thus, when I compare RB’s, I compare them to other RB’s that should be drafted. Other inputs to this model include the players Madden Rank (which I left out for Tight Ends because the rank is skewed towards blocking ability), injury potential, years experience, and team.

In the end we come up with a rank score. How do you interpret this rank score? Simple, a players rank score is his relative ranking compared to the average guy at his position. A positive rank score means he is ‘better than average’. A negative means he is ‘worse than average’. And zero means he’s right about average. Now, if the average player at that position isn’t very far from the best guy at that position, the best guy will have a lower rank score. In other words, while Drew Brees is awesome, he’s just not that much better than the average QB as far as projected stats (and other factors) go. Alternatively, the top RB’s and the top WR’s are much better than the average guy at their position, and thus their rank score gets a bigger boost.

So when you look at two players rank scores, and are choosing between Adrian Peterson and Drew Brees, my model is telling you to take Peterson because it’s likely that he’s much better than an average RB, whilst if you miss Brees and take an average QB (like Carson Palmer), you won’t get hurt as much. Ya feel me?

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What’s up Thief Nation! We’re just about 3 weeks away from the start of Fantasy Football 2011, which means 95% of us will be drafting over these next few weeks. I’ve got the first of three drafts (the only snake style one) scheduled for this Wednesday. That gives me little time to finalize my rankings and get the information in order. Today, I will post my updated rankings for Running Backs and I’ll post the rankings for Tight Ends for the first time. Tomorrow, I’ll post a final list of information for you. It will contain all positions, all rank scores, and all Madden ranks. I’ll also post a link to a Google Docs webpage where you can easily access the information and print out your own cheatsheets.

But before we get to the ranks, I want to touch on an old fantasy sports topic that holds it’s highest level of relevance right here in fantasy football: Decaying Assets. The theory of the Decaying Assets, as created by yours truly, is based off the notion of an Options Derivative Contract in Stock trading. Essentially, every player in the known fantasy sports universe is considered an ‘Asset’. As such, they have a projected payoff during the course of a season, like an investment. In fantasy sports, that ‘payoff’ is the players accumulated stats. For instance, in 2010, Adrian Peterson’s ‘payoff’ for the whole season was a little over 1800 total yards and 18 touchdowns.

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Whoa! Back to back days of posts! I made myself a promise that I’d start posting when I get home from work before I allowed myself to be sucked into the ever addicting world of Madden 2011. Seriously, you know it’s bad when your wife starts putting on her facebook status that she’s become a ‘Madden Widow’. But honey, don’t you see that this is research I’m doing for the betterment of Thief Nation?! HA! Yeah right.

Alright let’s start off with a recap of drafting strategies for football. I know I’ve been neglecting baseball lately here, but truth be told there’s just not much more to write about. We got playoffs a couple weeks out and it’s cruise control time. Sure, some are fighting (like me!) for a playoff spot (no one in my league has clinched a berth yet), but still there’s little strategizing we can do with a largely bare waiver wire and the trade deadline passed. Time to focus on football, make sure we’re all ready for upcoming drafts. To those of you who’ve already drafted, sorry I wasn’t more vocal about this sooner. But, a word of advice, you’re drafting too early. Particularly in football, players get injured too often in preseason games/practices and it’s just not fair for someone to start the season with a key player done for the year. Two weeks out from game one is the max for me when it comes to drafting. I’m in 3 leagues this year (I know, way too many, but I added a cream puff work league which should take minimal effort) and they all draft within 2 weeks of the first game.

Draft strategy. Look over the rankings I’ve posted so far and something should jump out at you, value. Undoubtedly the most value comes from the top 6 running backs, the top 5 wideouts, and Drew Brees. These are the 12 players with rank scores north of 10. These are the TD kings. If you’re sitting in a snake draft, these are your top 12 picks hands down. If you play in a league that scores 6 points for a passing TD, add Rodgers and Manning into this group, and add 2 rank points to each of the 3 QB’s scores. Past them the difference gets diffused to insignificance.

Sticking with snake draft strategy for a moment, let’s talk the first five rounds, and let’s talk 3rd overall pick vs. 10th overall pick. It looks like this: round one 3rd pick MJD (cause he’ll fall to you), 10th pick we’re talking Randy Contract Year Moss (cause he’ll fall to you too). Round two: 10th pick grabs a RB (think Mendenhall or Greene) whilst 3 grabs either a Wideout in the range of Austin/Ocho, or grabs Tom Brady if he’s still on the board. Round three: 3rd pick coming back grabs a RB no doubt, best one available. 10th pick does the same, best available. Now you’ve each got your workhorses (RB’s) squared away, plus either an elite WR or an elite QB. Fourth round: if you don’t have a QB, now is the time to grab a Flacco or Palmer. If you do have a QB, it’s WR time. 5th round: if you play in a 3 RB league, go RB here. If you play in a 2 RB, 3 WR league, go WR here. If you play in a flex league, take the best available and given two of equal rank score, take the RB.

That’s it. Straight forward and simple. From there, do not focus on filling up the TE or DEF or K slots until round 9-10. Instead, add depth to your skill position slots. RB’s, QB’s, WR’s, stock up on em, best value is best. I promise you, you’ll be happy you let other guys go after the Dallas Clark / Antonio Gates and we’ll grab this years Jermichael Finley / Visanthe Shiancoe on the cheap. Got it?

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Sorry for the hiatus again folks. Long story short, long hours at the office coupled with a SERIOUSLY unhealthy addiction to playing the new Madden 2011 has kept me at bay. That all said, I’m here and I’m ready to help. Now that we’ve gotten some preseason games out of the way, I’ve been able to update my projections based on what we’ve seen, starting with the QB’s. For instance, Joe Flacco and Carson Palmer look real good this year. Particularly Flacco, he looks so much more comfortable in the pocket. I remember seeing a Colts v. Ravens game last year, and walking away thinking that Flacco would never be a decent fantasy QB so long as he constantly relied on checkdowns instead of trusting his wideouts and his arm. Flash forward to this season, add in Stallworth and Boldin, some more maturity, and you get quite the results.

Anyway, back to the rankings. So yeah, I went ahead and updated my projections based on what I saw. Then I added each players Madden Rank, straight from the game, into my scoring system. Yeah I know, that’s sick, cause I’m crazy like that. At the top of the ranks, it’s not going to tell us anything we don’t already know. Manning, Brees, Brady, etc. However scrolling down you’ll see (I included the Madden rank next to each players rank score below) how he feels about guys like Matt Moore, Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan, etc. This is a nice way to judge rookies, to judge your backup QB, and if you’re like me and waiting til you fill the RB and WR slots before picking a QB, it’s a good way to parse out who’s got the skills to succeed.

Now one drawback of the Madden Ranks is that, obviously, team play doesn’t get factored in. This is a pure reading of how talented the QB is. For those of you unfamiliar with Madden, thinking that using a video game to rank your fantasy players is silly, do yourself a favor and start googling. These guys at EA sports capture every single aspect of a QB from how well he reads blitzes, to how well he throws short, medium, long passes, to speed and burst, to even the obvious stuff like strength and accuracy or throwing on the run. In short, this is the single best way to rank individual player prowess that I know. From there, I’m just taking into account the players around the QB, especially the O-Line, and producing some solid projections.

Alright, feast on the data below. As reader Morskie pointed out, you can copy/paste the results into a wordpad, then from there to excel to create your own cheatsheets. I’m keeping this post short cause I’m on my way to the driving range, but stay tuned as over the next two days I will pump out the RB ranks and WR ranks respectively. Then I’ll pump out those much needed TE ranks too. One last thing, two guys you should be targeting late based on what Madden sees: Brett Favre and Sam Bradford (obviously as a late late pick!)

Hope you find this stuff useful!